Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices?

From June 1994 to June 1995, producer prices increased rapidly. Excluding food and energy, prices of crude materials and intermediate goods rose at annual rates of 7.2 and 16.7 percent, respectively. At the same time, however, prices of consumer goods and services excluding food and energy increased a more modest 2.9 percent. Many analysts are concerned that recent increases in the prices of crude and intermediate goods may be passed through to consumers, resulting in a higher rate of inflation in consumer prices later this year and perhaps in 1996.